This is a summary of what we know as of today, and some suggestions to help you navigate through the coming weeks and seeding.

1. UAN contracted for April is likely to remain on track.
2. UAN contracted from May-August is now likely to be reduced depending on supplier – up to 60% reduction for this window. The most likely change would come if China reopened its exports, a scenario we would not bank on.
3. Uncontracted Post seeding Nitrogen is likely to be expensive ($1500+/t) and difficult to procure. As such plan and expect the Nitrogen to be unavailable or limited in supply. Hope unfortunately is not a strategy.
4. It is anticipated that a reasonable portion of the grain growing region in WA will experience some rainfall this weekend – these may eventuate to significant amounts providing a seeding opportunity (some are already taking advantage of this opportunity).
5. Early sown crops particularly Canola and Lupins have a strong yield response. Note phenology of Varieties is important and needs consideration for what is planted when.
6. Early sown canola into moisture, all other things being equal, requires less nitrogen than late sown canola – in an N limited situation try to capture all opportunities. This is due to more mineralisation from the soil and greater efficiency of uptake from the plant.
7. Early sown lupins should drive biomass which in turn will drive N units for the subsequent crops – it is important to consider Nitrogen is unlikely to come off in a hurry and 2027 needs consideration.
8. We expect that Nitrogen for most growers will have a degree of rationing required – consider the following
   • Crop type – how N responsive (Canola, Wheat and Barley, Oats)
   • Soil Type – OC %
   • Rotation – stored N
   • Rainfall – will drive mineralisation
   • Subsoil constraints
   • Water holding capacity – feed the crops that are most likely to transfer the N to final yield.
   • Carefully consider the cost of leaving a paddock out – See Glen Brayshaw’s article.
9. If rainfall eventuates control weed germination early as this will impact the available N – see Peter Newman’s article which demonstrates very early summer weed control has huge Nitrogen availability benefits.
10. Moisture will improve P efficiency – if P is likely to be compromised get the crop in early (all other things being equal).
11. Maintain a regular review of budget to align actions with most profitable outcomes – draw on key advisors for solutions not social media or the news.
12. Fuel is beginning to flow again, albeit slowly – some areas are limited due to logistics – continue communication with suppliers. Prioritise high value crops first so that if fuel is rationed your profit engine continues to fire.
13. Suppliers are also under significant stress. While the disappointment of missing product is very reasonable and will need to be worked through in due course, most service providers are working tirelessly to keep the wheels turning. Keep the communication lines open and a kind word in the mess will lift those around you and might just help provide a better outcome on farm.
14. Consider the farm infrastructure insurance in light of the potential cyclone – remember a shed may have coverage but what about the contents within (Fertiliser).
15. A consideration that will loom soon is the tax implications for the enforced reduced spending. Share your re-budget cashflow with your accountant as soon as it is constructed to provide time to adjust your plans.
16. Largest consideration is look after yourself and each other – we are entering a high stress period with additional unwanted stressors. You can’t control the noise or supply challenges around you, but you can control your ability to make sound decisions within the constraints you face.